The Buffalo Sabres‘ offseason has been busy and quiet at the same time.
Essentially there haven’t been a lot of big moves from the Sabres this offseason, but there have been plenty of questions that have arisen from the Sabres’ actions—or inaction.
So here we’ll provide a few answers to the questions lingering in many Sabres fans’ minds.
On July 11, Ilya Kovalchuk surprised many in the hockey world by retiring from the New Jersey Devils and walking away from the remainder of his ridiculous 15-year, $100 million contract he signed with them a few seasons ago.
With the Devils now left with a gaping hole in their first line on the left wing, the speculation immediately turned to the Buffalo Sabres and their purportedly available star left winger Thomas Vanek.
Now, it’s important to state that any talk to this point has been completely speculative and the idea of a N.J.-Buffalo trade has, as far as anyone knows, been the complete product of that rampant speculation.
Yet this is not just everyone grasping at straws.
The Devils have a serious need for a top-line winger now and the Sabres may have one available for them. For the right price, of course.
That is where this speculation starts to hit a wall called reality.
While the deal makes a lot of sense in theory, there are a few considerations that make it much less likely than some would have you believe.
First, the Sabres’ initial asking price is likely starting at Adam Henrique, the Devils’ 23-year old center who also happens to be a restricted free agent looking for a sizable pay day. The problem here is that Henrique is likely the Devils’ “guy” now. After losing Zach Parise last offseason, and David Clarkson and Kovalchuk this year (Clarkson signed with Toronto as a free agent), the Devils do not have much left on the roster. Henrique, Patrik Elias and Travis Zajac are really the only top-six forwards the team has left.
So, essentially, despite the fact that Henrique is going to get paid well, he is almost as untouchable as it gets right now. Therefore, the Sabres would have to look elsewhere on the roster.
That brings us to the second hurdle: the Devils’ shallow prospect pool.
The Devils, despite their long-ranging success, are quite bare in the prospect cupboard at the moment. There are seemingly only four prospects the Sabres would even consider trading Vanek for: Adam Larsson (if you still consider him a prospect), Jon Merrill, Reid Boucher and Stefan Matteau.
Larsson and Merrill are their best prospects, but they are also defensemen. Given the logjam the Sabres have at the prospect and NHL levels at defense, their value is likely significantly reduced.
That leaves Boucher, a mid-sized winger with skill, and Matteau, a two-way center. Given the choice of those two, the Sabres would probably lean toward Boucher, but is that enough?
Probably not, which brings us to what may be the biggest problem: The Devils must forfeit their first-round pick in the 2014 draft due to the cap circumvention penalty they incurred due to the (funny enough) Kovalchuk contract.
Right now, on paper, that pick is going to be in the lottery. That would be extremely attractive to the Sabres, but seeing the earliest they could cash in on a first-round pick from New Jersey would be 2015, that, again, reduces its value—although two potential chances in the Connor McDavid contest may be extremely valuable.
So, while it makes theoretical sense, unless New Jersey surprises most and moves Henrique, Vanek will likely not be headed to the Devils.
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As the available free agents begin to dwindle, the Buffalo Sabres are left with fewer options to aid them in their rebuilding process.
Despite having fewer options than those available on July 5, the Sabres still have the ability to bring in a few players that will help them moving forward.
This list does not consider any restricted free agents, including the Sabres’ own RFAs, due to the unlikeliness of any such signings occurring.
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When the floodgates to free agency opened on July 5, the Buffalo Sabres were passive observers as the rest of their yet-to-be-named conference added some important pieces.
The Sabres re-upped defenseman Alexander Sulzer to a one-year deal Saturday and signed another defenseman, Drew Bagnall, to a deal as well. Nathan Gerbe was also bought out, freeing up a roster space for the likes of Corey Tropp and Joel Armia.
Meanwhile, the Sabres’ conference-mates made some big splashes.
Current division members made some of the biggest waves of the day. The Toronto Maple Leafs added David Clarkson, giving him a monster seven-year deal. The Boston Bruins were finally able to bring Jarome Iginla into the mix on a one-year deal. The Ottawa Senators may have lost captain Daniel Alfredsson, but acquired Anaheim sniper Bobby Ryan in a blockbuster trade.
New conference-mates did not fall behind, however. The Tampa Bay Lightning added Valtteri Filppula to be their second-line pivot. The Detroit Red Wings added Daniel Alfredsson, Stephen Weiss and could be close to bringing back Damien Brunner.
Only the Florida Panthers have remained as quiet as the Sabres.
So where does this leave the Sabres?
In reality, it does not change much. The Sabres, with or without Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek, were not going to be one of the better teams in the conference next season as it was. Now it’s just a bit more pronounced.
The other reality is there were not very many “great fits” for the Sabres in the market. Wingers Nathan Horton—who signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets for seven years and $37 million—Ryane Clowe—who signed with the New Jersey Devils for five years and just shy of $25 million—and Clarkson were likely the best fits, but they were also extremely expensive.
Overpaying a guy is not the way to rebuild unless you believe that he will help in the long run. The three aforementioned names were potentially able to do that, but could also become huge hurdles in the rebuilding process.
Beyond that, the Sabres were quite adamant in allowing their young guys—especially Cody Hodgson and Mikhail Grigorenko—the playing time needed to grow.
Signing someone for the sole purpose of signing someone goes against that.
Some free agents that they may reach out to in the coming days are Brunner, Dustin Penner and Brenden Morrow.
Morrow would be a welcome addition to the team, able to add instant leadership and grit on what is to be a very young roster next season. However, it is unlikely Morrow would want to forgo a shot at the Stanley Cup next season to play with a work in progress.
However, the Sabres’ passiveness in the free-agent market is an extremely strong indication that the Sabres are not being passive in the trade market.
ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun tweeted on Friday that the St. Louis Blues and the Sabres have had talks regarding Ryan Miller, but that the price was “too high.” While not being reported, one can assume Vanek is the subject of at least a few calls a day as well.
The Sabres also have a handful of important restricted free agents to lock up, including Hodgson, Tropp, Matt Hackett, Brian Flynn and Luke Adam.
While the Sabres have been quiet, it seems like there is a lot going on under the surface that may be the cause for some excitement in the coming days.
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The Buffalo Sabres used all 10 of their draft picks yesterday and acquired another via trade to re-stock their prospect cupboard.
While the Sabres’ draft has been applauded by many, there still were some negatives at the end of the day.
What were they?
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Player: Connor Hurley
Drafted By: Buffalo Sabres (38th overall)
Position: Forward
Final Central Scout Ranking: No. 45 North American skater
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 181 lbs
DOB: September 15, 1995 (17 years old)
Most Recent Affiliation: U.S. National Development Team
Background
Hurley has worn many sweaters as an amateur hockey player. He spent the 2009-10 season with the powerhouse Shattuck St. Mary’s program, where he had 59 points in 58 games. The next year he had 36 points in 25 games for Holy Angels High School in Minnesota before transferring to the storied Edina High School, where he had 48 points in the 2011-12 season and 43 in the 2012-13 season.
He then had stints with the Muskegon Lumberjacks of the USHL, where he had eight points in 11 games, and then tallied a goal and assist in 10 games with the U.S. National Development Team.
Safe to say the peripatetic teenager will not be unfamiliar with change when he puts on another uniform, that of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, in 2014-15.
Full Scouting Report
It had to be crazy trying to scout this guy because he’s been in so many places, but the experts have seen enough to rave about his versatility—not just in terms of jumping from a boarding school (Shattuck) to a private school (Holy Angels) to a public school (Edina) to a USHL team (Muskegon) to a development team (USNDTP), but from role to role while playing at so many different levels.
“Hurley has the look of a future NHLer,” writes Future Considerations’ Aaron Vickers, “as he can play in any role given; checker, antagonist or offensive force.”
For Hurley to succeed at the next level, he must add strength during his time at South Bend. If he can build upon his 6’0”, 180-pound frame, he will be one of the most well-rounded prospects in the game.
NHL Player Comparison
David Krejci of the Boston Bruins. He can play both ends of the ice, sees the sheet well and is more of a setup guy than a scorer.
NHL Timetable
Hurley is going to have to spend two or three years building up his body and polishing his game in order to make it to the next level. (And, hey, it wouldn’t hurt to stay put in one place for a while, right?) Expect to see him during the 2015-16 season at the earliest.
Top-End Potential
If all goes well, Hurley will be a top-six forward capable of setting up talented linemates while keeping opposing scorers in check. If not, he can probably adapt to a role as a depth player on a grinder line.
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Player: J.T. Compher
Drafted By: Buffalo Sabres (35th overall)
Position: Center
Final Central Scouting Ranking: No. 34 North American skater
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 184 lbs
DOB: April 8, 1995 (18 years old)
Most Recent Affiliation: U.S. National Development Team
Background
J.T. Compher’s statistics don’t jump out at you and make you take notice, but if you watch him play, you can’t ignore him.
Compher scored seven goals and accumulated 24 points in 21 games with the U.S. National Development Team. He also has a habit of producing in clutch situations, which endears him to scouts and fans alike.
Full Scouting Report
The thing that impresses scouts the most is Compher’s competitive spirit and desire. That’s not to say he doesn’t have skills, but Compher is a leader who really wants possession of the puck.
NHL Network analyst Craig Button is impressed by Compher.
When you look at the package that J.T. has, it’s skill, it’s a competitive spirit. The biggest thing is, you watch a player that can skate and make plays, but he does it at high speed and at pace and tempo. He’s just a threatening player when he has the puck. And when he doesn’t have the puck, he wants the puck.
Compher also has great quickness and plays up to the level of the toughest competition.
Don Granato, Compher’s coach on the U.S. Under-18 Team, raved about his player’s desire.
If you take a puck from him, you better skate as hard as you’ve ever skated because he’s tracking you down and going to steal it back immediately. And if he can’t get it back, he’s probably going to whack you or run you into the boards.
Compher doesn’t project to be a big goal scorer at the NHL level, but he should wear a letter on his sweater before his career is over and will be a very effective two-way forward.
NHL Player Comparison
Brad Marchand of the Boston Bruins. Like Marchand, Compher doesn’t have huge physical size, but he gets under the skin of opposing players, fights for loose pucks and will be a productive offensive player. He will also be very tough to play against. Opposing players will remember Compher for a few nights after they play against him.
NHL Timetable
Compher has committed to the University of Michigan this fall and is likely to spend at least a couple of seasons with Red Berenson’s club in Ann Arbor. Because Compher is a physical forward, he probably needs a little more time to bulk up his 184-pound frame so he is ready to play against men rather than teenagers. Expect him to reach the NHL on a full-time basis by the 2015-16 season after a couple years of college hockey.
Top-End Potential
Scouts see Compher as a solid two-way forward. His top-end potential is probably a 30-goal scorer who will see some time on the power play and keep opposing players off their game. He will also be a leader on and off the ice and score big goals in big games. We’re talking about a hard-working, skilled and productive two-way forward who will log top-six minutes.
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Player: Nikita Zadorov
Drafted By: Buffalo Sabres (16th overall)
Position: Defense
Final Central Scouting Ranking: No. 22 North American skater
Height/Weight: 6’5”, 221 lbs
DOB: April 16, 1995 (18 years old)
Most Recent Affiliation: OHL, London Knights
Background
Nikita Zadorov knows that many NHL teams have questions about signing Russian-born players, so to prove he wanted to play in North America, the Moscow native joined the OHL’s London Knights this past season.
Zadorov has been a physical presence for the Knights this year. He scored six goals and 25 points in 63 games during the regular season and was an impressive plus-33. He added two goals and six points in 20 playoff games.
Full Scouting Report
Size is the first thing anybody notices about Nikita Zadorov. The Moscow native stands 6’5″ and weighs an imposing 221 pounds. Scouts are pleased that Zarodov isn’t afraid to use his size and plays a physical game.
Mark Hunter, a coach with the London Knights, raved about Zadorov. “He’s an intelligent kid. He’s grown so much — he’s so big. We knew he was going to figure it out. He’s not scared. He hits people, he finishes his checks. There’s so much to like about him it’s ridiculous.”
In addition, scouts are impressed with the way Zadorov skates for a big man. “Nikita is a big man who skates very well,” Central Scouting’s Chris Edwards told NHL.com. “He has very good mobility and his backwards skating is about the best in this year’s draft. He will take the body and battles hard along the boards. He uses his long reach well and is an effective pokechecker.”
The only issue scouts have about Zadorov is that because of his size, he may need more time than many other highly rated prospects to reach his full potential.
He also has had a tendency to go for big hits that look great on highlight reels but can take him out of position defensively, something most scouts believe he can overcome with more experience.
NHL Player Comparison
Zdeno Chara of the Boston Bruins. Like Chara, Zadorov has great size and is a smooth skater. He also plays a physical game and will make life tough on opposing forwards who want to get close to Zadorov’s goaltender.
NHL Timetable
Because of his size and because he is a defenseman, it will take Zadorov a little longer to mature and reach the NHL. Remember, he’s only played one year of junior hockey in North America. Expect him to reach the NHL on a full-time basis during 2015-16 season. Figure one more year in junior and one season in the AHL should have him ready to play his physical game against men instead of boys.
Top-End Potential
Scouts see some offensive potential in Zadorov. His top-end potential has him set to become a big No. 1 defenseman like Chara who can play on the power play, kill penalties and log major minutes. Even if he doesn’t develop an offensive game, his size and willingness to hit make him a solid second-pairing defenseman who will make life difficult for opposing forwards. With his earth-shattering hits, Zadorov should become a fan favorite in whatever city he plays in.
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Player: Rasmus Ristolainen
Drafted By: Buffalo Sabres (8th overall)
Position: Defenseman
Final Central Scout Ranking: No. 4 European skater
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 207 lbs
DOB: October 27, 1994
Most Recent Affiliation: SM-liiga, TPS Turku
Background
A large defenseman with room to grow, Ristolainen already has 93 games of experience in the Finnish SM-liiga as an 18-year-old. His moderate 2011-12 season (three goals, eight points, 78 penalty minutes in 40 games played) was backed up by an impressive 2012-13 campaign.
Last season, Ristolainen scored three goals and had 12 points while reducing his penalty minutes (32) in 52 games played. TPS relied heavily on his contributions, giving him ample playing time and putting him into key situations. His ability to play at such a high level in Finland’s professional hockey league has some scouts believing he could jump right in and play on an NHL team next season.
Full Scouting Report
Ristolainen is built like a forward and possesses exciting offensive ability, but the foundation of his play is in his own zone.
“To that point, he will lay the body, and he can provide quality hits,” writes Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus. “He could fast track to the NHL quicker than a typical defense prospect.”
He’s already a skilled puck-handler, a strong skater and is poised with the puck.
“With the puck, he shows calmness,” continues Pronman, “but he can process the game quickly when the situation calls for it.”
Ristolainen could crack an NHL roster immediately after being drafted, but while everyone raves about his physical play and hockey sense, some scouts question his ability to position himself in the defensive zone and control the play at both ends of the ice.
“[His] calling card,” reads his Talent Analysis on HockeysFuture,com, “is his willingness to be involved in the play and to push the envelope at times.”
NHL Player Comparison
Ristolainen is drawing comparisons to Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning. He is a large, versatile defenseman who’s productive at both ends of the ice.
NHL Timetable
If he is able to get involved in the play at both ends of the ice and generate offense, especially as a point man on the power play, Ristolainen could arrive as soon as the 2013-14 season.
Top-End Potential
At his best, Ristolainen will become one of the elite two-way defensemen in the NHL. If the offense does not come after his body has filled out, then it is likely he will be a defensive plug for a team in need of depth along the blue line.
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This will be a six-part series highlighting what the Buffalo Sabres‘ draft plans may be, including an individual look at all four picks the Sabres have in the top 52.
The Buffalo Sabres will have a busy 48 hours, not only having two of the first 16 picks in tomorrow’s draft, but also having a few of their stars on the trade block.
That means, no matter how deep this draft is, every Sabres fan will have one eye on their Twitter feeds to see if Thomas Vanek, Ryan Miller or Drew Stafford has been moved.
So here is a look at the three biggest story lines for the Sabres entering into the draft tomorrow.
Follow me on Twitter for NHL and Sabres news all offseason: @SwordPlay18.
